The market outlook for the second half of year 2025 is most likely going to close on a positive note.
This is the position of the Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of APT Securities and Funds Limited, Kasimu Garba Kurfi, who has projected that the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) market capitalisation will surpass ₦100 trillion by the end of 2025,
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‎Speaking at the Mid-Year 2025 Capital Market Review and Outlook organised by the Capital Market Correspondents Association of Nigeria (CAMCAN) in Lagos, Kurfi said the second half of the year will witness improved market performance, with inflation expected to slow, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) likely to cut the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), and treasury bill yields projected to fall.
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‎He added that the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) should rise, while the exchange rate will remain relatively stable, creating a favourable environment for equities.
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‎According to him, buoyed by foreign exchange stability, strong corporate fundamentals, and increased primary market activities the NGX will end the year stronger than 2024, with a market correction in the short term paving the way for sustained gains.
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‎Kurfi explained that more financial institutions are expected to recapitalise, while primary market activities will remain active in the months ahead.
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He identified key drivers of the 2025 market rally, to include the elimination of foreign exchange-related losses by companies. He pointed out that in 2024, listed firms posted pre-tax FX losses of ₦507.2 billion, up from ₦359 billion in 2023, representing a combined ₦867 billion in losses.
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‎ “In 2025, we have seen zero FX losses due to exchange rate stability, and this has significantly boosted investor confidence,” he said.
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‎The APT Securities boss said the signing of the Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Act (NIIRA 25) has triggered a rally in insurance stocks, while the CBN’s bank recapitalisation programme has revived the primary market, attracting over ₦2 trillion in 2024, with similar volumes anticipated in 2025.
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‎He also revealed that foreign capital inflows reached $5.6 billion in the first quarter of 2025, up from $3.4 billion in the same period in 2024, representing a 67.42 percent increase.
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‎”Foreign portfolio investment now accounts for 27.08 percent of market participation, or ₦1.14 trillion, as of July 2025, compared with less than 10 percent at the end of 2023.
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‎”Domestic investors, however, remain the dominant force, accounting for 72.92 percent, or ₦3 trillion. Daily market turnover has also improved sharply, averaging ₦25–₦30 billion, compared with ₦5 billion in previous years.
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‎”Performance data for the year shows the NGX turnover reached ₦4.19 trillion for the first half of 2025, compared with ₦2.60 trillion in the same period in 2024. Total market capitalisation rose to ₦126.73 trillion from ₦112.6 trillion in December 2024, while equity capitalisation surged to ₦92.73 trillion as of August 7, 2025, from ₦62.66 trillion at the end of 2024.
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‎”The All-Share Index (ASI) climbed to 146,569.35 basis points in early August, up 41.61 percent from 102,926.40 points in December 2024.
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‎”Sectoral performance has been robust, with about half of the NGX’s 21 indices outperforming the ASI. The Nigerian Consumer Goods Index has more than doubled the market’s gains with an 81.11 per cent rise, followed by the Insurance Index at 74.18 per cent, the NGX Lotus II at 73.34 per cent, the Banking Index at 48.15 percent, the Pension Index at 52.72 percent, and the Industrial Goods Index at 53.89 per cent.
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‎For investors, Kurfi recommended a focus on blue-chip stocks with strong fundamentals and insurance companies, particularly those that have diversified into asset management, including pension fund administration.
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‎He advised portfolio diversification to include fixed-income instruments for balance, adding that the capital market remains the best hedge against inflation and naira devaluation in the current economic climate.